Border Rumpus: The Irish Border and Brexit Pressure
Diane James wrote this opinion column for the publication New Europe in October 2018, and it was reposted on her site the next day. It is a polemical piece about the Irish border after Brexit, and its claims reflect her viewpoint.
The mood after the summit
She begins by describing a growing backlash, as she saw it, against the EU’s handling of British sovereignty in Ireland and against what she called a betrayal of voters in Downing Street. Reactions after the latest summit were, in her words, close to furious. She says the Prime Minister had faced violent language that would be actionable in some courts, and that the next budget could become the real pressure point. She also notes that a major tabloid was offering Theresa May some sympathy for the time being.
The border as a market boundary
The border between the UK and the EU, and between Northern Ireland and the Republic, she explains, is a line separating markets, money and migration. Whether the transitional backstop or the future trade and security treaty focuses on goods or on rights, the underlying issue is, she argues, competing tax and investment regimes.
She points out that the EU had already persuaded Ireland, following its bailout, to move away from a very low corporation tax that attracts large technology firms. In her reading, Brussels would therefore never let Northern Ireland use a similar advantage across a border that might be an unmanned country road. She also suggests the EU is uneasy about the City of London and its offshore links, and cannot accept Northern Ireland becoming a trading hub of its own.
Transition and the “leash”
She calls the EU’s growing insistence on extending an already generous transition into something permanent a petty move, describing it as a way of keeping the UK on a lead. Whether the present impasse is a genuine deadlock or, as she puts it, a squalid sell-out, she thinks it could shape the arithmetic in Westminster and the wider political dynamics in the UK. She suggests the EU may be misjudging the touchiest historical terrain imaginable, with consequences that might spill into Scotland.
Political fallout in the UK
She predicts that major political forces in England may be heading for a realignment, and speculates that Britain’s heartland might eventually reshape its relationships with Northern Ireland and Scotland. The EU’s approach, in her view, could backfire by encouraging a more confident and coherent English political bloc.
Her warning to Brussels
The piece closes with a warning to the chief EU negotiators, including Michel Barnier and Guy Verhofstadt, pointing to the political backlash in Italy over euros and debt as a hint of what could follow. The tone is deliberately sharp, and the speculation about the UK’s internal future is her own and not an established forecast.
For the policy background on customs, see The Customs Union.
